Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 23,909
2 Arizona 22,805
3 New York 21,466
4 Florida 20,578
5 New Jersey 20,514
6 Mississippi 18,244
7 Rhode Island 17,675
8 District of Columbia 16,925
9 Massachusetts 16,856
10 Alabama 16,798
11 South Carolina 16,335
12 Georgia 15,073
13 Delaware 14,866
14 Nevada 14,606
15 Maryland 14,240
16 Texas 14,234
17 Tennessee 14,103
18 Illinois 13,856
19 Connecticut 13,765
20 Iowa 13,606
21 Arkansas 13,314
22 Nebraska 13,047
23 Utah 12,126
24 California 12,020
25 North Carolina 11,096
26 Idaho 10,809
27 Virginia 10,191
28 Indiana 9,693
29 South Dakota 9,599
30 New Mexico 9,438
31 Wisconsin 9,294
32 Minnesota 9,277
33 Kansas 9,094
34 Pennsylvania 8,914
35 Michigan 8,814
36 Oklahoma 8,531
37 North Dakota 8,063
38 Colorado 7,887
39 Missouri 7,531
40 Washington 7,429
41 Ohio 7,399
42 Kentucky 6,463
43 Puerto Rico 4,959
44 New Hampshire 4,780
45 Alaska 4,576
46 Wyoming 4,473
47 Oregon 4,129
48 West Virginia 3,444
49 Montana 3,266
50 Maine 2,855
51 Vermont 2,251
52 Hawaii 1,224

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 523
2 Florida 426
3 Tennessee 383
4 Mississippi 358
5 Nevada 324
6 Oklahoma 309
7 Alabama 287
8 Georgia 275
9 Arizona 271
10 South Carolina 265
11 Idaho 260
12 Arkansas 243
13 Texas 242
14 Alaska 219
15 Missouri 212
16 California 182
17 North Dakota 177
18 New Mexico 159
19 North Carolina 159
20 Rhode Island 157
21 Nebraska 142
22 Maryland 136
23 Wisconsin 136
24 Puerto Rico 135
25 Virginia 132
26 Utah 130
27 Kansas 117
28 Minnesota 117
29 Washington 117
30 Indiana 110
31 Iowa 110
32 Kentucky 110
33 District of Columbia 107
34 Delaware 103
35 Illinois 103
36 Ohio 94
37 Colorado 91
38 Wyoming 82
39 Michigan 78
40 Pennsylvania 78
41 Oregon 73
42 Montana 72
43 South Dakota 70
44 West Virginia 65
45 New Jersey 53
46 Massachusetts 44
47 Hawaii 32
48 Connecticut 28
49 New York 28
50 New Hampshire 20
51 Maine 11
52 Vermont 4

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,781
2 New York 1,662
3 Connecticut 1,240
4 Massachusetts 1,240
5 Rhode Island 948
6 District of Columbia 826
7 Louisiana 819
8 Michigan 643
9 Illinois 603
10 Delaware 595
11 Maryland 571
12 Pennsylvania 562
13 Mississippi 518
14 Arizona 470
15 Indiana 434
16 Georgia 328
17 Colorado 314
18 Alabama 304
19 South Carolina 303
20 New Hampshire 300
21 New Mexico 298
22 Ohio 289
23 Minnesota 287
24 Florida 284
25 Iowa 265
26 Nevada 246
27 Virginia 245
28 Texas 224
29 California 220
30 Washington 214
31 Missouri 205
32 North Carolina 176
33 Nebraska 168
34 Kentucky 164
35 Wisconsin 157
36 Tennessee 144
37 Arkansas 141
38 South Dakota 139
39 North Dakota 136
40 Oklahoma 128
41 Kansas 118
42 Idaho 94
43 Maine 90
44 Utah 90
45 Vermont 89
46 Oregon 72
47 Puerto Rico 65
48 West Virginia 61
49 Montana 48
50 Wyoming 44
51 Alaska 27
52 Hawaii 17

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Texas 17
2 Mississippi 7
3 Arizona 6
4 Louisiana 6
5 South Carolina 6
6 Florida 5
7 Arkansas 3
8 Idaho 3
9 New Mexico 3
10 Alabama 2
11 California 2
12 Georgia 2
13 Missouri 2
14 Nevada 2
15 Ohio 2
16 Illinois 1
17 Indiana 1
18 Iowa 1
19 Kansas 1
20 Kentucky 1
21 Maryland 1
22 Massachusetts 1
23 Montana 1
24 New Jersey 1
25 North Carolina 1
26 Oklahoma 1
27 Oregon 1
28 Tennessee 1
29 Utah 1
30 Washington 1
31 West Virginia 1
32 Alaska 0
33 Colorado 0
34 Connecticut 0
35 Delaware 0
36 District of Columbia 0
37 Hawaii 0
38 Maine 0
39 Michigan 0
40 Minnesota 0
41 Nebraska 0
42 New Hampshire 0
43 New York 0
44 North Dakota 0
45 Pennsylvania 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 Rhode Island 0
48 South Dakota 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 138,692 1 99
Lake Tennessee 102,765 2 99
Lee Arkansas 98,905 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 94,527 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 90,571 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 29,557 107 96
Richland South Carolina 17,402 383 87
Orange California 10,969 836 73
York South Carolina 10,442 882 71
Pierce Washington 5,592 1593 49

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,020 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,399 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 3,027 5 99
Richland South Carolina 305 665 78
Davidson Tennessee 279 719 77
Orange California 183 1003 68
Pierce Washington 145 1159 63
York South Carolina 89 1495 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons